Postato:

23 gennaio 2014

Dimagrire, cambiare, ritrovare i clienti

A Davos, costosa località di vacanze invernali in Svizzera si svolge l’annuale rito della riunione di un’elite mondiale che analizza tutti i guai planetari, produce previsioni, senza mai lasciarci grandi certezze sulle decisioni che ne seguiranno. E a al Davos World Economic Forum 2014 si è subito parlato, come è normale, di finanza planetaria, dei guasti che ha prodotto (su base planetaria) e di come le grandi banche internazionali possano venirne a capo senza sacrificare troppo i propri bonus e -senza curarsi molto del ruolo e del destino delle piccole banche di paese- senza rinunciare troppo a rischi da trading e investment banking. E se qualcuno desidera capire di cosa si discute quest’anno può leggere questo valido e lungo articolo pubblicato due giorni fa dall’autorevole reporter di Bloomberg.

Dall’articolo una collezione di alcuni estratti per delineare il clima che circonda il sistema bancario internazionale e fornire altri spunti sui comportamenti futuri delle banche europee e italiane.

Fioccano le multe, reputazione al tappeto, fiducia da ricostruire

The six biggest U.S. banks set aside more for legal costs in 2013 than any year since at least 2008, and in Europe, the 11 lenders with the highest legal costs over the past two years racked up at least $10.8 billion in regulatory fines and settlements last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s 61 percent more than in 2012.

“Politicians remain to be convinced that bankers have done enough to clean up their act,” said Howard Davies, a board member of New York-based Morgan Stanley, the sixth-biggest U.S. bank by assets, and a former deputy governor of the Bank of England. “Bankers declared war was over far too soon.”

Davies will moderate a Friday session titled “Rebuilding Trust in Finance” that features Credit Suisse Group AG Chairman Urs Rohner and Guillermo Ortiz, chairman of Grupo Financiero Banorte SAB, Mexico’s third-largest bank.

Banks have to think back to basics,” Ortiz said in an interview. “They have to make money by servicing clients and not by betting among themselves in markets that have no relation to the economy.

Banks and financial services are the least trusted of all industries, according to an annual global survey by public relations firm Edelman released Jan. 20. Fifty-one percent of those polled said they could trust banks to do what’s right, almost unchanged from last year’s 50 percent, compared with 79 percent for technology companies. The figure for banks was 32 percent in the U.K. and 33 percent in Germany.

The road to rebuilding confidence in banking will take at least a decade, Jenkins, (Barclays CEO ndr) 52, said on BBC Radio 4’s Today program on Dec. 31. He declined to comment for this article. The executive is returning to Davos amid an overhaul of the bank that includes closing a profitable operation that helped wealthy individuals and businesses cut their tax bills.

Banche multate a ripetizione, politici ancora scettici sulla volontà reale di introdurre codici di comportamento di maggiore sicurezza, fiducia dei clienti consumatori e dell’opinione pubblica andata distrutta su un serie prolungata di errori, scandali e accuse. Rapporto con i clienti da ripensare, 10 anni di ricostruzione necessari. Un vero e proprio atto di pentimento, vero o presunto, ma inevitabile.

Rischio non ancora sotto controllo, manca capitale, occorre dimagrire

“Some banks are too weakly capitalized and potentially insolvent, and the system remains dysfunctional and continues to be reckless,” said Anat Admati, a Stanford University finance professor and author of “The Bankers’ New Clothes: What’s Wrong with Banking” who’s moderating the safety panel.

The European Central Bank is conducting a three-stage review of banks to identify capital deficiencies in their statements of assets, debts and owners’ investment, known as the balance sheet, before assuming oversight in November of about 130 lenders in the 18 countries that use the euro. Designed to restore confidence in lenders by breaking the link with their sovereign governments, the exercise may force banks to boost capital and could prompt further deleveraging, ECB President Mario Draghi, said earlier this month.

The balance sheets are still so big,” said Guillaume Rambourg, founder of Paris-based hedge fund Verrazzano Capital SAS. “That’s what European banks really haven’t addressed, which is the size of the balance sheet, the gearing to their capital base. Everything they can do to accelerate the balance-sheet reduction and increase the capital ratio will be welcomed and rewarded, probably, by the market.”

Modelli di business che non funzionano più

Banks are struggling to increase revenue and profits amid sluggish economic growth and rules that limit profitability, including new capital requirements approved by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, restrictions on commodities trading and the Volcker Rule in the U.S. that seeks to curtail banks’ bets with their own money.

Some of the business models are still not viable, particularly in corporate and investment banking,” said Henrik Naujoks, Frankfurt-based head of the financial services practice for Europe, Middle East and Africa at consulting firm Bain & Co. “In the past six months, we’ve received lots of requests from banks to assist them in becoming more client-centric, and it comes as banks are fighting to restore their reputation and secure their top line.”

Firms in North America are generally well-capitalized with low risk while those in Europe are “standing on the threshold of once-in-a-generation restructuring” after the financial crisis, Oliver Wyman said in its report on the 2014 financial-services industry at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Financial-services companies in both regions are still hampered by regulatory restrictions, including fines, the report said.

Banche europee poco attraenti per gli investitori

Europe’s biggest bank, London-based HSBC Holdings Plc, Banco Santander SA, Spain’s largest lender, and Deutsche Bank [equity] rose less than 10 percent. Investor confidence is reflected in the valuations of European banks, which trade at an average 1.2 multiple of tangible book value compared with 1.9 times for U.S. banks, the bank indexes show.

E le banche italiane?

Devono passare attraverso alcuni test difficili: la loro reputazione, sebbene non intaccata da scandali internazionali come la manipolazione di tassi Libor, non è alta in Italia a causa del prolungato credit-crunch e dell’accusa di avere usato quasi tutta la liquidità per comprare titoli di Stato. La loro capitalizzazione è abbastanza buona, anche grazie agli interventi preventivi della Banca d’Italia, potrebbero sopravvivere al test dell’AQR (Asset Quality Review), ma non tutte. Alcune sembrano in posizione di particolare debolezza, in particolare alcune popolari e le banche per le quali è nota l’urgenza di eseguire un aumento di capitale e soddisfare gli obiettivi minimi di Tier1 capital (MPS, Carige, Banca Marche, Banca Etruria).

Ma praticamente quasi nessuna potrà sottrarsi alle terapie indicate per le banche internazionali:

→ ridurre le attività e quindi il credito, che è in Italia la principale componente dell’attivo bancario;

→ ripensare in profondità il modo di fare banca, i modelli di business, il servizio alla clientela

→ recuperare margini e redditività

→ ricostituire la fiducia dei clienti

→ recuperare la fiducia degli investitori, che negli ultimi anni in presenza di questi rischi hanno dato una valutazione ai titoli ben inferiore a quel multiplo di 1,2 citato nell’articolo per le principali banche europee.

Troppo tutto insieme? Probabilmente sì, soprattutto in un periodo relativamente breve. Quasi tutti dovranno fare delle scelte di priorità e le vedremo, forse, nei nuovi piani industriali.

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